Crude oil failed to cross the resistance @100.73

Outlook: Crude oil failed to cross the resistance @100.73 formed by the evening star on daily charts. RSI levels are turning U direction and are indicating that strength is lacking.
Crude oil after turning down from 100.14 made a lower high which indicates bearish nature of crude oil in near term. Probably levels of 97.10 will be again tested and if that is broken, 95levels could easily seen. Our sense is that Crude oils has been stuck in range with upper band of 101 and lower band of 95.
Major signals will only be created if it moves out of this range.

Crude oil failed to cross resistance of 100.73 !

 
Conclusion: Swift traders can take short positions in crude with a stop at 100.8 and target of 97.20 at the current levels(99.3).

Nifty is headed for a pullback rally--Follow up

On 25 Nov, we advised traders to go long on nifty, those who have taken action must maintain their long position with trailing stop at 4780.
Next resistance for the nifty is 4880,if that is surpassed then 4920,4950 and 5000 levels could be seen. But post 5050 seems to be unlikely as of now. We need to watch out where nifty loses its strength to initiate fresh short positions. But as of now, we should only watch our long positions.

Happy profits!!

Nifty is headed for a pullback rally

 Short term Outlook: 
Nifty is quite oversold for now after a vertical fall from 5300 to 4650.
It is now trading above its trendline of fall from 5229 to 4650.
RSi level on M30 charts is trading above its 20period MA. It seems that nifty is ready for a pullback and could touch 4850 its previous high on H1 charts or 4900(which is 38.2% level of its fall).

Nifty oversold and seeking a pullback

So short term signal for nifty is buy with a target of 4850 at current levels with a stop at 4700.

Crude oil holding its support $95!!!

For the last 3days Crude oil has been holding its support $95 and trading above this level, an important Fibonacci level of fall from 115 to 75$. Untill this level is broken, we will assume uptrend to be continued in crude oil for short term.
95 level had acted as a important support level in the past also for 3 times as shown in the chart.

Crude oil holding its support @95

So we will be watching this 95 level closely, if broken shorting could be then done in this counter.

Till then trade should be on long side, since TA believes that "Trend is your friend until its proven wrong".
Stop loss for long trades should be placed just below 95$. If that is broken reversal trade direction would not be a bad idea.

Happy trading!!

EUR/USD breaks its support 1.3480 !!

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD:
EUR/USD yesterday broke its support 1.3480 decisively and today trading well below it. You might be thinking why 1.3480 level was important?? Because it was a imp Fibonacci 50% level of upside from 2009low to 2010high.
Yes, obviously just because one Fibonacci level is broken that doesn't mean it will go in downtrend. But the fact that it had broken weekly trendline on 4th sept2011, fell to 1.3150 level and come back to 1.4250 just to touch the broken trendline gives us the conviction that the correction is over now and the downtrend has been resumed from thereon.
Possibly after pullback rally to 1.3450 it should retest 1.3150 levels and if that is broken, 1.2900 levels could be seen. Besides,confirmation from indicators like RSI broke its trendline, MA crossover and signal below MA add to our bearish view.

EUR/USD heading for new lows???

So traders should look shorting opportunities in EUR/USD at arround 1.3400-3450 levels with stop at 1.3490 with a target of 1.3200. Positional traders can short at current levels with stop at 1.3500 with a target of 1.3150-1.2900.

*Disclaimer: Technical analysis is not 100% accurate. We will not be responsible for financial loss to our readers.

Is 4400 level of Nifty underway ?

Traders be cautious !! Nifty is trading below 4700 level !! we need to watch out if gives closing below 4700, if that happens 4530 would be the next level where it should find support.
But my sense is that Nifty is very much oversold now and 4650 should act as a good support for the time being(1-2days).

Traders should wait for a pullback before short selling nifty. 4850 would be a good point for short selling and 4920 should be the stop loss (which is a recent high).

USD/CAD resistance breakout !

23Nov2011 USD/CAD outlook: USD/CAD has given a breakout on upside by overcoming the resistance at 1.0375 level as which was imp Fib level of decline from 1.0657 to .9894.

USD/CAD heading for new highs??

USD/CAD for the last 3 days has been continuously trading above the trendline as shown in the chart picture.
We believe that the rally from low 0.9405 has been resumed from the 0.9894 levels marking a intermediate bottom there.
On a broader picture, an uptrend from .9405 levels is correction of the fall from 1.2900 levels to 0.9405 levels.
As long as .9724 level holds it has the chance to goto 1.0670 levels again. From there it could encounter resistance, 1.0700 should prevent current upside rally.

Conclusion:
In view of above we are looking for buying USD/CAD at arround 1.0350 levels at 1.0295 with potential target of  1.0500.

*Disclaimer: Trading involves substantial risk. we won't be responsible for any financial loss to our readers.

FTSE breaking its consolidation pattern

21Nov2011 FTSE Short term Outlook: Today on H4 charts FTSE broke 5300 level (base of consolidation pattern) decisively and trading well below these levels since the opening. With the breaking of 5300 level, outlook has turned out to be bearish for short term.  

Analysis: Few observations are given below for the FTSE daily as well as weekly charts: 

>>With the breaking of important support 5300, all bullish hopes have been turned down and signifies that next leg of downturn can be started from here. 

>>FTSE has been trading well below 50day MA for the 3last days. 

>>RSI and MACD levels are trading below their 9day MA. 

>>Minimum target should be 5730-5300=430 points below 5300 i.e. 4870 levels for the short term in 1-2 weeks. 

In broader term, FTSE is correcting the up move from 3450 to 6050. 50% Fib level 4755 will be acting as strong support. But from the patterns of FTSE it seems that it can go into a long term downtrend. Monthly charts of FTSE are forming "Rounding top formation" although the pattern will complete only if the neckline 4755 is broken, post this giving much lower targets for FTSE. 

Conclusion: In view of the above, we expect downtrend in FTSE atleast for the short term as long as it stays below 5437. Although the major bearishness will come only below 4755. 

Short term: Short FTSE on intraday rallies to 5270 keeping a stop loss at 5350 with a target of 5100. Positional trade: Short FTSE arround 5270-5300 with a stop loss at 5405 with a target of 5000-4900.

*Disclaimer: All the post views are informative only and purely based on technical analysis. It does not guarantee 100% accuracy. We will not be responsible for any financial loss.

Intermediate downtrend in Nifty resumes-20Nov

20-Nov2011 Nifty Outlook: We were waiting for the confirmation of important neckline 5150 line to broken before we come to any conclusion that downtrend in nifty has begun again. On Friday, nifty broke all imp support levels suggesting that selling pressure has resumed in nifty.

Analysis: On Thursday Nifty touched very important support level 5000 but on Friday it broke this level decisively with rising vol more than 10day average giving sign of strong selling pressure. Important observations are:

>>Nifty has broken 5000 level decisively and weekly closing suggests that intermediate rally is over.

>>RSI levels broke their neckline and are trading well below their 20day short moving averages.

>>Nifty broke all the important support levels with rising volumes suggesting strong downtrend.

>>Nifty has cut its 50day SMA line on thursday and weekly closing confirmed this.  

Conclusion: In view of the above observations, we are having prediction that the intermediate downtrend has begun. Currently Nifty is oversold for short term, pullback rally upto 5000 cannot be ruled out. But it will encounter resistance at 5037-5065 and 5200 resistance should prevent any further upside rallies. 

 We have two strategies:

Positional trade:  Go short in Nifty at 5030-5060 levels with Stop loss at 5200 and target of 4700.

Short term trade: Short at 5050 levels with stop loss at 5150 and target of 4850.

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Short term uptrend to be continued in Gold

Comex Gold Outlook: Gold has been in short term uptrend since 20Oct and day before yesterday it took multiple support at 1730 which is its 20day MA coinciding with up trendline. As long this trendline holds, short term view on gold will continually be up.
Analysis: Following observations have been made from the below chart:

>>Making higher highs and lower lows since 20Oct on daily charts signaling uptrend.
>>1725-30 will continue act as good support being trendline value and 20day simple MA. Also 1724 is the 50% fibb level of the fall from 1920 to 1530. 
>> Yesterday Gold crossed its Fibb 61.8%  1770 level giving bullish sign.
>> As long as up trendline is broken down, the short term trend will continually be on the upside.

Conclusion:

Short term: One could buy Gold on dips around 1770 levels with stop @1745 and target of 1820.

Positional trade: Buy on dips arround 1750-1770 with stop @1720 and target of 1860

Nify took support @ 5142--A Buying opportunity

11-Nov-2011 Nifty Outlook: Yesterday, Nifty took support at 5142 which was a neckline breakout level of W-pattern on daily charts suggesting bullish call isn't over yet. 

Analysis:
Few observations due to which I am bullish on nifty for the short term  are: (shown in chart also)

 >>Nifty broke-out from 5140 levels(W-pattern) with a huge gap up on 28Oct (which is called breakaway gap in technical analysis and very bullish in nature).
>>Since then, nifty has been filling the gap and 5140 still holds, which is a positive sign.
>>RSI still on the breakout line and hasn't gone below it yet.
>> Yesterday nifty made a doji pattern indicating probably the short term correction is over and bullish momentum may continue Monday onwards.

Yet another reason which indicate positive outlook of nifty is Dow_jones has started rising again after a short correction post its breakout from 11700 levels, currently its quoting at 12116 levels very near its immediate high 12256, once this level is crossed we will see a immediate rise in nifty towards 5400 levels.

Conclusion:
In view of the above, one can take a long call on Nifty at the current levels for a target towards 5380(its immediate high) with a stop loss at 5095 (nearly 75 points) with RRR 1:3 (approx).